[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 30-31 Aug

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 19:35 UTC, 30 August 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 31 AUGUST

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS
 
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 AUGUST
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 20, 12, 10 (30 - 31 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
     NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO
     SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND
     VERMONT/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO CENTRAL NORWAY TO CENTRAL SWEDEN TO FINLAND
     TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

     Solar wind enhancements following a transient solar disturbance are
becoming favorable for producing stronger levels of auroral activity.
Occasional enhancements toward the middle latitudes are expected over the
next 24 hours.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
31 August. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **