[Aurorawatch] AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 11-12 July

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                    WATCH ISSUED: 21:10 UTC, 11 JULY 2004

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 12 JULY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11 - 12 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11 JULY - 12 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 15, 10, 10 (12 JULY - 15 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR TO FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO
     WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO
     MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN AND POSSIBLY
   EXTREME NORTHERN GERMANY TO SOUTHERN FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

   EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

     A small coronal hole disturbance has impacted the Earth and is producing
periods of enhanced auroral activity, primarily over the high latitude
regions at the present time. Some equatorward motion of the auroral oval is
expected over the next 6 to 12 hours that could promote observations of
activity over some dark-sky middle latitude regions. Although no significant
auroral storm activity is expected, localized substorming could produce
moderately strong auroral activity for brief periods of time, particularly
over the southern hemisphere high latitude regions. Nothern hemisphere high
latitude regions will suffer from the extinctive effects of twilight
conditions.

     Also of potential interest is a new active region that is approaching
the southeastern solar limb. It appears to be moderately hot at the present
time and may support energetic events. More will be known over the coming
days as this region rotates into view.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
12 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **