[Aurorawatch] AURORA WATCH: Updated Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 22-24 July

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 10:30 UTC, 22 July 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 24 JULY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS
 
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 22-23 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22-24 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 20, 20, 12 (22 JULY - 25 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE TO VERY LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
   SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY
   SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REACHES OF
   GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

   SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

     A solar wind shock has been detected by the ACE spacecraft near 09:55 UTC 
on 22 July. Auroral activity is expected to intensify over the next 12 to 24 
hours and may become visible over some dark-sky middle latitude locations.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
24 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **