[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 02-04 Jan

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 23:45 UTC, 01 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC (7 pm EST) 02 JANUARY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 04 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 03 JANUARY
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 02-04 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 22, 27, 15, 10 (02 - 05 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS ON 03 JAN
                                    MINOR BELT = 48 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
     MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO EXTREME NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO
     VERMONT TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN NORWAY TO
     SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

     A major class X1.7 solar flare observed within the first 30 minutes of
the New Year has the potential to produce a modest auroral display on 03
January. In addition, effects of an earlier partially Earthward-directed
coronal mass ejection associated with a class M4 flare from the same active
region, combined with anticipated effects of a coronal hole based
disturbance, could produce an extended period of enhanced auroral activity
effective immediately through to 04 January. The most intense phase of
activity is expected to be on 03 January (early morning hours of 03 January
for North Americans) when the mass ejected from the X-class flare is expected
to arrive. Although no significant auroral storming is expected, periods of
activity may become sporadically strong enough to be observed across fairly
wide-spread middle latitude locations during the next 48 to 72 hours.
Observations prior to local midnight will provide the darkest skies, prior to
moonrise.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
04 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: www.spacew.com. For discussions of activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **