[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 21-23 January

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 23:00 UTC on 20 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 23 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 21-22 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 21-23 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 40, 40, 20, 20 (18 - 21 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18-24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA
   TO ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND
   TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

   NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.

SYNOPSIS...

     The middle latitude auroral activity warning has been replaced by this
middle latitude auroral activity watch. Potential volatility persists in the
space weather situation. Two coronal mass ejections are currently enroute to
the Earth. The first is expected to arrive anytime within the next 6 to 12
hours. The second is expected to arrive anytime from now until the latter
part of 22 January (UTC time). Considerable uncertainty in the timing of the
second event precludes the reliable formation of an arrival time estimate.
Both disturbances have the potential to produce periods of active to major
geomagnetic and auroral storm conditions. Observers are encouraged to keep a
close eye on conditions over the next 48 to 72 hours.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
23 January. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For 
updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **