[Aurorawatch] Aurora Warnings downgraded to a Mid-Latitude Watch - 23-24 Jan

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 00:00 UTC on 23 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 24 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 23-24 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 23-24 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 17, 20, 20, 15 (23 - 26 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW TO MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = ~18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = ~18-36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
   MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
   TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN MAINE TO NEW BRUNSWICK.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO EXTREME NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN NORWAY
   TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

   EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.

SYNOPSIS...

     Effects of a coronal hole based disturbance will keep levels of auroral
activity mildly active over the next 48 to 72 hours. Most of the auroral
activity will remain confined to the high latitudes. During isolated
substorms, periods of activity may become visible over the upper-middle
latitude regions. No significant auroral storm activity is expected.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
24 January. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **