[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 29-31 January

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 05:00 UTC on 29 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 31 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 29-30 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 29-31 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 25, 18, 15 (29 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW TO MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = ~18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = ~18-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
   MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
   TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN MAINE TO NEW BRUNSWICK.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO EXTREME NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN NORWAY
   TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

   EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.

SYNOPSIS...

     A well placed solar coronal hole is beginning to push a corotating
interaction region through the Earth system. Enhancements in auroral activity
will be observed over the next 12 to 24 hours as the high velocity solar wind
stream commences its passage. Most of the enhanced activity will remain
confined to the high latitudes, although some substorms will likely become
visible over dark-sky middle latitude regions - particularly during the next
24 hours.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
31 January. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **