[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 09-10 April

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 00:45 UTC, 09 April 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 10 April

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: INITIAL LEADING EDGE HAS ARRIVED

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 09 - 10 APRIL
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 09 - 10 APRIL

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 20, 12, 08 (09 - 12 APRIL)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW - MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR TO FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO EXTREME NORTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHERN MONTANA
     TO NORTH DAKOTA TO DARK-SKY SITES OF MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
     NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO FINLAND TO SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

     A transequatorial coronal hole is in the process of arriving. The
leading compressive region of solar wind is producing enhanced magnetic
fields that could soon begin to drive enhanced geomagnetic and auroral
activity. Periods of active to minor geomagnetic and auroral storming are
possible with this disturbance, particularly during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Some mid-latitude regions (particularly the upper-middle and higher
latitudes) may spot periods of sporadically enhanced auroral activity.
However, lunar interference will wash out the skies and may prove
problematic for observers.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 10
April. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                  http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **