[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 07 December 2006

[Mid or Low Latitude Aurora Watches]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 03:00 UTC on 07 December 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (7 pm EST) ON 11 December

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 08-10 DEC (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07-11 DEC

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 20, 30, 20 (07 DEC - 10 DEC)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO IDAHO TO MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA
   TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SCOTLAND TO DENMARK TO NORWAY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN
   RUSSIA.

   SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     A recurrent coronal hole disturbance is impacting the Earth. Periods of
auroral activity will be possible over the high and upper-middle latitude
regions during the next 24 hours. Commencing on 8 December and lasting
through perhaps 10 December (possibly through much of next week), coronal
mass ejections from recent energetic solar activity will begin affecting
auroral activity. At the present time, no significant auroral storming is
anticipated. By 10 December, the sunspot complex responsible for this
activity will be well positioned for producing stronger Earth-bound impacts.
Much stronger auroral storming into next week will be possible if this active
region remains volatile.

     This watch will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (7 pm EST) on
11 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For
updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **