[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 December
Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.
finalsolar at spacew.com
Tue Dec 11 22:31:36 GMT 2007
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
10 DECEMBER, 2007
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(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 DECEMBER, 2007
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!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 344, 12/10/07
10.7 FLUX=069.4 90-AVG=068 SSN=043 BKI=0123 2224 BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=A6.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=0222 2124 PAI=008
BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,*** DEV-AVG=*** NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= B7.8 @ 0700UT XRAY-MIN= A5.1 @ 1003UT XRAY-AVG= A9.5
NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,080;SESC:085,085,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=008,008,007/012,010,005
KFCST=**** **** **** **** 27DAY-AP=008,009 27DAY-KP=3312 2123 3312 2311
WARNINGS=
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 DEC 07 is not available.
The Full Kp Indices for 10 DEC 07 are: 0o 2o 2- 2o 2o 1+ 2o 4-
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 10 DEC 07 are: 0 7 6 7 7 5 7 22
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 10 DEC is: 4.2E+06
DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 69.5, 69.4, 69.4 sfu.
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
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Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S08E14) grew
in complexity over the past day and is currently a beta-gamma
magnetic type.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to range
from very low to low. The trend in region 978 suggest a good chance
for C-class activity..
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds at
ace began to increase, approaching 440 km/s by 1800Z. Temperature
and density trends also signal the approach of a coronal hole high
speed stream.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled early in the period as the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Occasional
active periods may occur, particularly at high latitudes.
Extrapolation from stereo behind suggests a peak speed near 600 km/s
by 11 november at 1000Z. The disturbed conditions are exptected to
diminish by 13 december.
Event probabilities 11 dec-13 dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 dec-13 dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 06/06/06
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================
Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z
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Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
0978 S01E14 223 0250 Esi 12 22 Beta-Gamma
0979 N08W93 330 0060 Hax 01 01 Alpha
0976 S09W94 333 Plage
0977 S05W55 330 Plage
Regions Due to Return 11 Dec to 13 Dec
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 DECEMBER, 2007
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Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
None
** End of Daily Report **
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