[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 December

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                16 DECEMBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 DECEMBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 350, 12/16/07
10.7 FLUX=082.0  90-AVG=071        SSN=028      BKI=0100 1112  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=A7.5     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1000 0002  PAI=002
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,080,075;SESC:085,080,075 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,010,008/025,015,015
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=003,028   27DAY-KP=0000 0123 2234 6533
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 DEC 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 DEC 07 are: 1- 0+ 0o 0o   0o 0+ 0o 2- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 16 DEC 07 are:   3   2   0   0   0   2   0   6 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 16 DEC is: 5.2E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low to very low.  Region 978
       (S10W65) decreased in both size and number of spots.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.  A slight chance for a C-class flare remains.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to become unsettled to active by the afternoon of december
       17th as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes
       geoeffective.  Isolated minor storm periods at mid latitudes, and
       isolated major storms at high latitudes are possible.  Conditions
       are expected to remain at unsettled levels with isolated active
       periods through 18 december, diminishing to unsettled levels by 19
       december.

            Event probabilities 17 dec-19 dec

                             Class M    05/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 dec-19 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/15
                        Minor storm           20/15/10
                        Major-severe storm    10/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/20
                        Minor storm           25/25/15
                        Major-severe storm    10/10/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 16/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0978 S10W65   223  0240 Dai  10   18 Beta-Gamma
Regions Due to Return 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 DECEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **