[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 December

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                17 DECEMBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 DECEMBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 351, 12/17/07
10.7 FLUX=080.0  90-AVG=071        SSN=014      BKI=2255 4433  BAI=024
BGND-XRAY=B1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2244 4424  PAI=017
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.1   @ 1828UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 1747UT   XRAY-AVG= A5.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:075,070,070;SESC:075,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/015,015,015
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=028,013   27DAY-KP=2234 6533 3444 2211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 DEC 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 17 DEC 07 are: 2- 2o 4- 4-   4+ 4- 2- 4- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 17 DEC 07 are:   6   7  22  22  32  22   6  22 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 17 DEC is: 1.7E+06
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 978 (S10W78) produced
       today's only C-class event, a C2 at 0716Z. The region appears to be
       decaying as it approaches west limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low, although there continues to be a chance for an isolated C-class
       event.

            The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
       field was initially quiet but became disturbed after a sudden
       impulse was observed at 0300Z. The sudden impulse was preceded by a
       weak shock in the solar wind observed at ace at 0204Z. The shock was
       followed by an increase in velocity and magnetic field at ace
       consistent with a corotating interaction region which was then
       followed by a high speed stream. Active to minor storm conditions
       prevailed from 0600-1200Z, followed by mostly active conditions. As
       of forecast issue time the solar wind velocity remains elevated with
       values around 550-600 km/s.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  geomagnetic activity is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days (18-20
       december), due to continued influence of the high speed stream.

            Event probabilities 18 dec-20 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 dec-20 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                50/50/50
                        Minor storm           20/20/20
                        Major-severe storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/50/50
                        Minor storm           25/25/25
                        Major-severe storm    10/10/10


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 17/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0978 S09W78   223  0100 Cao  06   04 Beta
Regions Due to Return 18 Dec to 20 Dec
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 DECEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **