[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 December

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                18 DECEMBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 DECEMBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 352, 12/18/07
10.7 FLUX=077.0  90-AVG=071        SSN=014      BKI=3434 4323  BAI=018
BGND-XRAY=B1.1     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=3434 4233  PAI=018
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,012/015,015,012
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=013,013   27DAY-KP=3444 2211 1321 2444
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 DEC 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 18 DEC 07 are: 3+ 4o 3+ 4-   4o 2+ 3- 3o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 18 DEC 07 are:  18  27  18  22  27   9  12  15 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 18 DEC is: 6.4E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 978 (S08W91)
       has produced several C-class events, the largest being a C2 at
       18/1320Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be at
       very low to low levels.  Activity levels should decrease with the
       rotation of region 978 beyond the west limb.

            The geomagnetic field was at predominately unsettled to active
       levels.  This elevated activity is due to a coronal hole high speed
       stream that has rotated into a geoeffective position.  Measurements
       at the ace spacecraft indicated a steady increase in solar wind
       speed.  At the time of forecast issue the wind speed was
       approximately 700 km/s.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels for 19 to 21
       december due to the continued influence of the high speed stream.

            Event probabilities 19 dec-21 dec

                             Class M    05/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 dec-21 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                50/50/40
                        Minor storm           20/20/15
                        Major-severe storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/50/40
                        Minor storm           25/25/20
                        Major-severe storm    10/10/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 18/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0978 S08W91   223  0120 Cao  03   04 Beta
Regions Due to Return 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 DECEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **