[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 July

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  10 JULY, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 JULY, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 191, 07/10/07
10.7 FLUX=069.4  90-AVG=074        SSN=025      BKI=1010 1213  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=A6.3     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1001 1213  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=02:006
 XRAY-MAX= C9.2   @ 1240UT    XRAY-MIN= A3.9   @ 1945UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.9
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,085;SESC:080,080,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,008,005/015,008,005
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=005,020   27DAY-KP=1011 1222 3434 2443
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 JUL 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 10 JUL 07 are: 1- 0+ 0+ 1-   1+ 2o 1+ 3+ 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 10 JUL 07 are:   3   2   2   3   5   7   5  18 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 10 JUL is: 3.7E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z:    69.5,    69.4,    69.4 sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  Region 963 (S06E40) produced
       12 C-class flares, the largest of which was a C8.2/Sf at 10/1240Z.  The
       region grew rapidly, approximately doubling in size in the past 24
       hours.  It is now an e-class, 15 spot region with a beta-gamma
       magnetic configuration.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to remain
       low to moderate, with a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare
       from region 963.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind data indicate the onset
       of a corotating interaction region beginning approximately 10/1400Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on days
       one and two (11-12 july) due to a coronal hole high speed stream. 
       Quiet conditions are anticipated to return on day three (13 july).

            Event probabilities 11 jul-13 jul

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 jul-13 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/30/10
                        Minor storm           20/15/05
                        Major-severe storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                45/35/10
                        Minor storm           25/20/05
                        Major-severe storm    10/10/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 10/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0963 S06E40   057  0530 Ehi  13   15 Beta-Gamma
0962 S05W90   187                    Plage
Regions Due to Return 11 Jul to 13 Jul
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 JULY, 2007
---------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
 1216 1216 1216                       120                           
 1259 1259 1300                       140                           
 1325 1325 1325                       110                           
 1413 1413 1413                       100                           
 1748 1753 1804  0963 S07E45 C5.2  Sf 130                           
 1805 1805 1805                       110                           


**  End of Daily Report  **