[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 July

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  17 JULY, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 JULY, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 198, 07/17/07
10.7 FLUX=072.0  90-AVG=074        SSN=017      BKI=1122 1011  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1111 1222  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A6.0   @ 1647UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.1   @ 0528UT   XRAY-AVG= A2.1
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,008,012/005,010,015
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=004,014   27DAY-KP=1101 1211 1233 3334
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 JUL 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 17 JUL 07 are: 1+ 1o 1o 1o   1o 2- 2- 2- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 17 JUL 07 are:   5   4   4   4   4   6   6   6 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 17 JUL is: 1.2E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  No significant activity
       has been observed during the past 24 hours.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.

            The geomagnetic field has been quiet.  The greater then 2 mev
       electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet on 18 july.  Expect unsettled to active
       conditions with a chance for isolated minor storming on 19 - 20 july
       as a recurring coronal hole moves into geoeffective position.

            Event probabilities 18 jul-20 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 jul-20 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/15/20
                        Minor storm           05/05/10
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/25
                        Minor storm           05/10/15
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 17/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0963 S06W53   057  0240 Eao  12   07 Beta
0964 N03W84   088                    Plage
Regions Due to Return 18 Jul to 20 Jul
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 JULY, 2007
---------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **