[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 July

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  19 JULY, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 JULY, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 200, 07/19/07
10.7 FLUX=068.0  90-AVG=074        SSN=012      BKI=0011 2111  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1000 2111  PAI=003
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A4.2   @ 1530UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 1832UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:068,068,068;SESC:068,068,068 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,008,005/015,015,010
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=016,011   27DAY-KP=4344 2233 3331 1232
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 JUL 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 19 JUL 07 are: 1o 0o 0+ 0o   2- 1o 1o 1+ 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 19 JUL 07 are:   4   0   2   0   6   4   4   5 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 19 JUL is: 1.6E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 963 (S04W86) is the
       only spotted region on the disk and is rotating out of view.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to remain
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled with active periods on day 1 (20 july) due
       to a recurrent coronal hole.  Quiet conditions should return on days
       2 and 3 (21-22 july).

            Event probabilities 20 jul-22 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 jul-22 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/25/10
                        Minor storm           15/10/05
                        Major-severe storm    10/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/30/10
                        Minor storm           20/15/05
                        Major-severe storm    10/05/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 19/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0963 S04W86   064  0110 Hsx  04   02 Alpha
Regions Due to Return 20 Jul to 22 Jul
Nmbr Lat    Lo
0961 S08    220


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 JULY, 2007
---------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **