[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 June
Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.
finalsolar at spacew.com
Sun Jun 3 22:31:38 GMT 2007
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
02 JUNE, 2007
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(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 JUNE, 2007
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!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 153, 06/02/07
10.7 FLUX=083.0 90-AVG=073 SSN=045 BKI=2222 1222 BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=A9.9 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=2221 1212 PAI=007
BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,*** DEV-AVG=*** NT SWF=02:024
XRAY-MAX= M2.9 @ 0611UT XRAY-MIN= A8.3 @ 0051UT XRAY-AVG= B6.2
NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,085;SESC:085,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,005/015,015,005
KFCST=**** **** **** **** 27DAY-AP=002,018 27DAY-KP=1000 0111 1132 3544
WARNINGS=
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 JUN 07 is not available.
The Full Kp Indices for 02 JUN 07 are: 2+ 2o 2o 1+ 1+ 2- 1+ 2+
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 02 JUN 07 are: 9 7 7 5 5 6 5 9
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 02 JUN is: 6.7E+07
DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
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Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 960
(S07E62) produced three M-class events; an M2.1/Sf at 01/2152 utc,
an M2.5/Sf at 02/0611 utc, and an M1.0 at 02/1035 utc. This region
is classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with an area of
approximately 480 millionths.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a chance for an X-flare from region 960.
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 mev
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 03 and 04 june as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective.
Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 05 june. Based
on the potential for significant flare activity from region 960,
there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 mev proton event.
Event probabilities 03 jun-05 jun
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 jun-05 jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 10/10/01
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
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Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z
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Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
0958 S12E13 227 0010 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
0959 S12E36 204 0030 Cso 04 02 Beta
0960 S07E62 178 0480 Fkc 16 12 Beta-Gamma-Delta
Regions Due to Return 03 Jun to 05 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
0957 S05 138
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 JUNE, 2007
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Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
0525 0611 0619 0960 S09E77 M2.5 Sf
** End of Daily Report **
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