[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 June
Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.
finalsolar at spacew.com
Tue Jun 5 22:31:42 GMT 2007
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
04 JUNE, 2007
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(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 JUNE, 2007
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!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 155, 06/04/07
10.7 FLUX=086.0 90-AVG=074 SSN=058 BKI=3311 3422 BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B1.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=3311 2322 PAI=008
BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,*** DEV-AVG=*** NT SWF=01:019
XRAY-MAX= X1.0 @ 0513UT XRAY-MIN= A8.9 @ 1909UT XRAY-AVG= B7.6
NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,085;SESC:085,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=008,005,005/008,005,005
KFCST=**** **** **** **** 27DAY-AP=014,005 27DAY-KP=2442 2233 1221 1111
WARNINGS=
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 03 JUN 07 is not available.
The Full Kp Indices for 04 JUN 07 are: 3- 3o 1- 1- 2- 3- 2+ 2-
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 04 JUN 07 are: 12 15 3 3 6 12 9 6
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 04 JUN is: 5.1E+07
DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
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Solar activity was at high levels. Region 960 (S08E38)
produced an M8.9/3b flare at 04/0513 utc with an associated 130 sfu
tenflare. There is some decay in area of the central and trailing
spots of this region, however it remains a complex beta gamma delta
magnetic classification.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels with a chance for an X-flare from region
960.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period observed at the boulder magnetometer between 04/1500 utc and
04/1800 utc. Solar wind speed at ace is currently elevated around
500 km/s. The greater than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Based on the potential for
significant flare activity from region 960, there is a slight chance
for a greater than 10 mev proton event.
Event probabilities 05 jun-07 jun
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 jun-07 jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================
Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z
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Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
0959 S10E11 203 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
0960 S08E38 176 0480 Fkc 16 37 Beta-Gamma-Delta
0958 S09W16 230 Plage
Regions Due to Return 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 JUNE, 2007
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Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
0216 0220 0234 B1.5 650
0506 0513 0516 0960 S07E51 M8.9 3b 130
** End of Daily Report **
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