[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 May

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  03 MAY, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 MAY, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was high today.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 123, 05/03/07
10.7 FLUX=083.0  90-AVG=073        SSN=033      BKI=1020 1222  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=A2.8     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1021 1121  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.1   @ 0001UT    XRAY-MIN= A3.1   @ 1951UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,080,080;SESC:085,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,008/005,005,008
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=004,003   27DAY-KP=1211 0111 3100 0001
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 02 MAY 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 03 MAY 07 are: 1- 0+ 2o 1-   1+ 1+ 2- 1o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 03 MAY 07 are:   3   2   7   3   5   5   6   4 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 03 MAY is: 5.4E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  Region 953 (S11W30) produced a
       C8.5 flare at 02/2348Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
       region 953.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 mev electron
       flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet on 04-05 may.  Expect quiet to unsettled
       levels with isolated active periods on 06 may as a recurrent coronal
       hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

            Event probabilities 04 may-06 may

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 may-06 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/20
                        Minor storm           05/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/25
                        Minor storm           05/05/10
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 03/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0953 S11W30   308  0380 Cko  07   10 Beta
0954 S07W12   290  0020 Bxo  02   03 Beta
Regions Due to Return 04 May to 06 May
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 MAY, 2007
--------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **