[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 May

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  05 MAY, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 MAY, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 125, 05/05/07
10.7 FLUX=070.9  90-AVG=074        SSN=018      BKI=1011 2111  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A2.8     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1011 0001  PAI=003
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.8   @ 1246UT    XRAY-MIN= A3.7   @ 1514UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:080,075,075;SESC:080,075,075 BAI/PAI-FCST=008,008,005/010,010,005
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=003,009   27DAY-KP=0000 0003 4331 1011
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 04 MAY 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 MAY 07 are: 1o 0+ 1- 1o   0+ 0+ 0+ 1+ 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 05 MAY 07 are:   4   2   3   4   2   2   2   5 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 05 MAY is: 2.9E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z:    70.5,    70.9,    70.6 sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  Region 953 (S10W57) produced a
       C4.2/1f flare at 05/1247Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
       region 953.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 mev electron
       flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, on
       06-07 may due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Expect
       predominantly quiet conditions on 08 may.

            Event probabilities 06 may-08 may

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 may-08 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/15
                        Minor storm           10/10/05
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor storm           15/15/05
                        Major-severe storm    05/05/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 05/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0953 S10W57   307  0260 Cko  05   08 Beta
0954 S07W38   290                    Plage
Regions Due to Return 06 May to 08 May
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 MAY, 2007
--------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **