[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 May
Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.
finalsolar at spacew.com
Thu May 17 22:31:38 GMT 2007
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
16 MAY, 2007
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(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 MAY, 2007
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!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 136, 05/16/07
10.7 FLUX=077.0 90-AVG=074 SSN=056 BKI=0110 2321 BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=A3.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=1111 1112 PAI=004
BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,*** DEV-AVG=*** NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C3.2 @ 1740UT XRAY-MIN= A3.1 @ 1118UT XRAY-AVG= B1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
FLUXFCST=STD:080,075,075;SESC:080,075,075 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/005,005,010
KFCST=**** **** **** **** 27DAY-AP=006,003 27DAY-KP=3221 1001 1111 1002
WARNINGS=
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 MAY 07 is not available.
The Full Kp Indices for 16 MAY 07 are: 1o 1- 1- 1o 1o 1o 1- 2-
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 16 MAY 07 are: 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 6
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 16 MAY is: 7.8E+06
DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 956
(N02E35) produced a C2/sf flare at 16/1741Z along with multiple
B-class flares during the past 24 hours. This region continues to
show rapid growth in sunspot area and is now magnetically classified
a dkc beta-gamma-delta sunspot group. Region 955 (S07W77) continues
to decay and is currently an axx alpha sunspot group. New region
957 (S04W34) was numbered today and is depicting several umbra.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible due to
the magnetic complexities of region 956.
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels today.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on 17 and 18 may. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 19 may. Unsettled to active conditions are expected
with isolated minor storm periods possible, as the coronal hole
becomes favorably positioned.
Event probabilities 17 may-19 may
Class M 35/35/40
Class X 10/10/15
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 may-19 may
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================
Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z
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Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
0955 S07W77 182 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
0956 N02E35 070 0220 Dkc 06 22 Beta-Gamma-Delta
0957 S04W34 139 0010 Bxo 03 03 Beta
Regions Due to Return 17 May to 19 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 MAY, 2007
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Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
None
** End of Daily Report **
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