[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 May

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  17 MAY, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 MAY, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 137, 05/17/07
10.7 FLUX=077.0  90-AVG=074        SSN=030      BKI=1221 2122  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=A2.7     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1211 1123  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.2   @ 1256UT    XRAY-MIN= A2.4   @ 2154UT   XRAY-AVG= A7.3
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,075;SESC:075,075,075 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/005,010,020
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=003,002   27DAY-KP=1111 1002 1100 0111
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 MAY 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 17 MAY 07 are: 1+ 2o 1- 1o   1+ 1o 2o 3o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 17 MAY 07 are:   5   7   3   4   5   4   7  15 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 17 MAY is: 2.5E+06
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity decreased to very low levels.  Region
       956 (N02E21) was limited to the production of multiple B-class
       flares during the past 24 hours.  The sunspot area and magnetic
       complexity underwent further enhancement today.  Region analysis
       continues to depict a dkc beta-gamma-delta sunspot group.  Regions
       955 (S09W92) and 957 (S04W47) were spotless over the past 24 hours. 
       No new regions were numbered today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be at
       low levels.  There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare
       from region 956.

            The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on 17 may. 
       Predominantly unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
       storm periods are possible on 19 and 20 may, due to a recurrent
       coronal hole high speed stream.

            Event probabilities 18 may-20 may

                             Class M    25/25/25
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 may-20 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/25/25
                        Minor storm           01/10/10
                        Major-severe storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/25/45
                        Minor storm           05/15/25
                        Major-severe storm    01/05/15


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 17/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0956 N02E21   070  0300 Dkc  07   20 Beta-Gamma-Delta
0955 S09W92   184                    Plage
0957 S04W47   139                    Plage
Regions Due to Return 18 May to 20 May
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 MAY, 2007
--------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **