[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 May

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  21 MAY, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 MAY, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 141, 05/21/07
10.7 FLUX=073.0  90-AVG=074        SSN=015      BKI=3200 1113  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=A2.2     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=3100 1123  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B8.9   @ 0241UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.6   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= A7.3
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,075;SESC:075,075,075 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/008,005,015
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=004,005   27DAY-KP=2110 1222 3100 2211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 MAY 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 21 MAY 07 are: 3- 1o 0o 0o   1- 1o 2o 3o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 21 MAY 07 are:  12   4   0   0   3   4   7  15 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 21 MAY is: 3.7E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (N03W32) is
       decaying but continues to produce occasional B-class flares.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to continue
       at very low levels. There is slight chance for a C-class flare from
       region 956.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods. The
       greater than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
       high levels today.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A weak cme
       observed on 19 may may produce isolated unsettled to active periods
       on 22 may. A high speed coronal hole stream will rotate into a
       geoeffective position on 24 may and produce occasional active to
       minor storm periods.

            Event probabilities 22 may-24 may

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 may-24 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/30
                        Minor storm           01/01/10
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/40
                        Minor storm           05/05/20
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/10


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 21/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0956 N03W32   071  0090 Dao  04   05 Beta
Regions Due to Return 22 May to 24 May
Nmbr Lat    Lo
0953 S10    307


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 MAY, 2007
--------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **