[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 May
Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.
finalsolar at spacew.com
Wed May 23 22:31:40 GMT 2007
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
22 MAY, 2007
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 MAY, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 142, 05/22/07
10.7 FLUX=072.0 90-AVG=074 SSN=014 BKI=2123 2333 BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=1212 2343 PAI=011
BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,*** DEV-AVG=*** NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= B4.5 @ 1447UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2359UT XRAY-AVG= A5.3
NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,075;SESC:075,075,075 BAI/PAI-FCST=008,010,020/010,015,025
KFCST=**** **** **** **** 27DAY-AP=005,006 27DAY-KP=3100 2211 2000 2322
WARNINGS=
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 21 MAY 07 is not available.
The Full Kp Indices for 22 MAY 07 are: 1+ 2- 1o 2o 2o 3- 4o 3+
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 22 MAY 07 are: 5 6 4 7 7 12 27 18
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 22 MAY is: 1.5E+07
DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------
Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 956
(N03W46) produced a long duration B3 flare at 22/1447Z. This event
had an associated type ii radio sweep (585km/s), and a coronal mass
ejection was observed on lasco imagery. Region 956 is in decay and
has decreased considerably in size over the last 48 hours, however,
the region still exhibits minor magnetic complexity.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from
region 956.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 23 may. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream will rotate into a geoeffective position on
24 may and produce active to minor storm periods on 24 and 25 may.
Event probabilities 23 may-25 may
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 may-25 may
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/40
Minor storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/40/50
Minor storm 05/20/30
Major-severe storm 01/10/15
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================
Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
0956 N03W46 071 0040 Bxo 02 04 Beta
Regions Due to Return 23 May to 25 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 MAY, 2007
--------------------------------------------------
Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
1430 1447 1519 B3.9 II
** End of Daily Report **
More information about the Finalsolar
mailing list