[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 November

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                16 NOVEMBER, 2007

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 NOVEMBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 320, 11/16/07
10.7 FLUX=071.0  90-AVG=068        SSN=013      BKI=1122 2113  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1012 2113  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:069,069,069;SESC:069,069,069 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/005,005,005
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=012,004   27DAY-KP=4433 2321 0111 1112
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 NOV 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 NOV 07 are: 1+ 0+ 1+ 2-   2- 1o 1+ 3+ 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 16 NOV 07 are:   5   2   5   6   6   4   5  18 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 16 NOV is: 2.0E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  Region 974 was designated
       in position N12W04 as spot class bxo, magnetic class beta.  A slow
       moving cme was observed on the southwest limb at approximately
       16/1100Z.  This cme appears to have originated on the backside of
       the sun and is not expected to be geoeffective.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with one unsettled
       period.  Solar wind speed remains elevated near 500 km/s due to a
       geoeffective recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet for the forecast period, november 17 - 19.

            Event probabilities 17 nov-19 nov

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 nov-19 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor storm           01/01/01
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor storm           05/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 16/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0974 N12W04   200  0020 Bxo  02   03 Beta
Regions Due to Return 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 NOVEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **