[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 November

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                19 NOVEMBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 NOVEMBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 323, 11/19/07
10.7 FLUX=070.0  90-AVG=068        SSN=000      BKI=1000 2123  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=0000 0123  PAI=003
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,012/010,020,015
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=007,003   27DAY-KP=3321 1111 1001 1111
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 NOV 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 19 NOV 07 are: 0+ 0o 0o 0o   0+ 1- 2o 3- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 19 NOV 07 are:   2   0   0   0   2   3   7  12 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 19 NOV is: 5.2E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
       solar disk was spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to continue
       at very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  A co-rotating interaction
       region was seen at the ace spacecraft at 19/1715Z elevating solar
       wind speeds to approximately 420 km/s.  A sudden impulse (11nt) was
       detected at the boulder magnetometer at 19/1811Z.  At the end of the
       forecast period wind speed was approximately 440 km/s.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to range from quiet to active levels.  On day one (20
       november), expect mostly quiet to unsettled levels.  On days two and
       three (21 to 22 november), conditions are expected to increase to
       unsettled to active levels, due to a coronal hole high speed stream
       moving into a geoeffective position.  Isolated minor storm levels at
       middle latitudes, and major storm periods at high latitudes are also
       possible on 21 and 22 november.

            Event probabilities 20 nov-22 nov

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 nov-22 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/35/30
                        Minor storm           10/15/15
                        Major-severe storm    05/10/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/40/35
                        Minor storm           15/20/20
                        Major-severe storm    10/15/15


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 19/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
0974 N13W47   201                    Plage
Regions Due to Return 20 Nov to 22 Nov
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 NOVEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **