[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 November

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                21 NOVEMBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 NOVEMBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 325, 11/21/07
10.7 FLUX=069.0  90-AVG=068        SSN=000      BKI=3444 2211  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=3444 2211  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:069,069,068;SESC:069,069,068 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,008,005/015,010,008
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=020,014   27DAY-KP=1102 3653 3322 3342
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 NOV 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 21 NOV 07 are: 3- 4- 4o 4-   2+ 2- 1- 1o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 21 NOV 07 are:  12  22  27  22   9   6   3   4 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 21 NOV is: 2.6E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
       The visible disk remained spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.

            Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Ace
       solar wind measurements indicated earth remained under the influence
       of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
       gradually increased during the first half of the period and reached
       a peak of 703 km/sec at 21/0920Z, then gradually decreased to a low
       of 601 km/sec by the end of the period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 22 november as
       coronal hole effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to
       quiet to unsettled levels on 23 november as coronal hole effects
       subside. Quiet conditions are expected on the final day of the
       period.

            Event probabilities 22 nov-24 nov

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 nov-24 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/20/10
                        Minor storm           15/05/01
                        Major-severe storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/25/15
                        Minor storm           20/10/05
                        Major-severe storm    05/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 21/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
0974 N13W73   201                    Plage
Regions Due to Return 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Nmbr Lat    Lo
0973 S11    019


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 NOVEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **