[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 01 October

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                01 OCTOBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 OCTOBER, 2007
-----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was very high today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 274, 10/01/07
10.7 FLUX=068.0  90-AVG=068        SSN=012      BKI=2233 2111  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2232 2212  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:068,068,067;SESC:068,068,067 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,012,010/010,015,010
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=006,012   27DAY-KP=2221 1221 2442 3122
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 30 SEP 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 01 SEP 07 are: 2+ 2+ 3- 2o   2o 2- 1+ 2- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 01 SEP 07 are:   9   9  12   7   7   6   5   6 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 01 OCT is: 1.5E+09
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected
       during the period.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to remain
       at very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
       than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 october. On 03
       october, activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels
       due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.  There will also
       be a chance for brief minor storm periods at high latitudes. 
       Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 04
       october as the high-speed stream subsides.

            Event probabilities 02 oct-04 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 02 oct-04 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/30/25
                        Minor storm           01/15/10
                        Major-severe storm    01/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/35/30
                        Minor storm           05/20/15
                        Major-severe storm    01/10/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 01/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0971 S01W32   112  0020 Bxo  03   02 Beta
Regions Due to Return 02 Oct to 04 Oct
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 OCTOBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **