[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 October

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                02 OCTOBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 OCTOBER, 2007
-----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was very high today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 275, 10/02/07
10.7 FLUX=066.0  90-AVG=069        SSN=000      BKI=3232 1223  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2221 2323  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:067,067,067;SESC:067,067,067 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,010,005/015,010,005
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=012,013   27DAY-KP=2442 3122 3212 2234
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 OCT 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 02 OCT 07 are: 2+ 2o 2+ 1+   2- 3- 2+ 3+ 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 02 OCT 07 are:   9   7   9   5   6  12   9  18 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 02 OCT is: 1.7E+09
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
       disk is spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to remain
       at very low levels for the forecast period.

            The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
       than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high
       levels today.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to active levels on 03 october as a
       recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.  Minor
       storm periods are also possible at high latitudes.  On 04 october,
       activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled conditions. 
       Mostly quiet levels are expected on 05 october.

            Event probabilities 03 oct-05 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 oct-05 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/10
                        Minor storm           15/10/05
                        Major-severe storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/25
                        Minor storm           20/15/10
                        Major-severe storm    10/05/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 02/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
0971 S01W45   112                    Plage
Regions Due to Return 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 OCTOBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **