[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 October

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                04 OCTOBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 OCTOBER, 2007
-----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 277, 10/04/07
10.7 FLUX=067.0  90-AVG=069        SSN=000      BKI=4323 2211  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=4322 2211  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:067,067,067;SESC:067,067,067 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/005,005,005
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=012,006   27DAY-KP=4411 2212 2222 1221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 03 OCT 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 04 OCT 07 are: 4o 3o 2+ 2o   2o 2+ 1o 1o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 04 OCT 07 are:  27  15   9   7   7   9   4   4 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 04 OCT is: 2.5E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
       spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.

            The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels due to a
       recurrent coronal hole high speed steam.  Earlier on 03 october,
       minor to major storm levels were observed at high latitudes between
       0600-1500Z due to this high speed stream.  Real-time solar wind
       speed at ace reached a maximum of approximately 600 km/s at 04/0102Z
       and has gradually decreased to approximately 515 km/s at forecast
       issue time.  The greater than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous
       orbit reached high levels again today.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods early on day
       one (05 october).  Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder
       of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 05 oct-07 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 oct-07 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/05/05
                        Minor storm           05/01/01
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/10/10
                        Minor storm           10/01/01
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 04/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
0971 S01W71   112                    Plage
Regions Due to Return 05 Oct to 07 Oct
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 OCTOBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **