[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 October

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                15 OCTOBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 OCTOBER, 2007
-----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 288, 10/15/07
10.7 FLUX=067.0  90-AVG=068        SSN=000      BKI=1001 1011  BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1000 0101  PAI=002
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:067,067,067;SESC:067,067,067 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,008,008/005,010,010
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=003,004   27DAY-KP=2100 1211 0201 1111
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 OCT 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 15 OCT 07 are: 1o 0+ 0o 0o   1- 1- 0o 1- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 15 OCT 07 are:   4   2   0   0   3   3   0   3 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 15 OCT is: 2.2E+06
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  There are no spots
       visible on the solar disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet for 16 october.  Expect unsettled conditions
       with isolated active periods for 17-18 october due to a recurrent
       coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 16 oct-18 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 oct-18 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/10
                        Minor storm           01/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/15/15
                        Minor storm           01/10/10
                        Major-severe storm    01/05/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 15/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 16 Oct to 18 Oct
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 OCTOBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **