[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 October

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                20 OCTOBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 OCTOBER, 2007
-----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 293, 10/20/07
10.7 FLUX=067.0  90-AVG=068        SSN=000      BKI=4443 2221  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=4433 2321  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:067,067,067;SESC:067,067,067 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,005,005/010,005,008
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=015,010   27DAY-KP=3442 2123 3421 2112
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 OCT 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 20 OCT 07 are: 4- 4- 3- 3-   2- 3- 2- 1+ 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 20 OCT 07 are:  22  22  12  12   6  12   6   5 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 20 OCT is: 8.9E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
       during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be
       spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.

            The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Unsettled
       to active levels prevailed from the beginning of the period through
       1200Z, after which conditions declined to quiet to unsettled levels
       through the end of the period. Real-time solar wind observations
       from ace show the continued presence of a recurrent high speed solar
       wind stream; solar wind velocity varied between 600-680 km/s
       throughout the day. The greater than 2 mev electron flux at
       geosynchronous altitude reached high levels during the past 24
       hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the first day
       (21 october), although there is a chance for isolated active periods
       early in the day due to persistence from the high speed stream.
       Conditions are expected to be quiet for the second day (22 october)
       and quiet to unsettled for the third day (23 october).

            Event probabilities 21 oct-23 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 oct-23 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/10
                        Minor storm           10/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/10
                        Minor storm           10/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 20/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 OCTOBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **