[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 October

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                21 OCTOBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 OCTOBER, 2007
-----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 294, 10/21/07
10.7 FLUX=067.0  90-AVG=068        SSN=000      BKI=0122 1122  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=0111 1112  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:067,067,067;SESC:067,067,067 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/005,008,015
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=010,006   27DAY-KP=3421 2112 3011 1132
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 OCT 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 21 OCT 07 are: 0+ 1o 1+ 1o   1- 1- 1o 2- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 21 OCT 07 are:   2   4   5   4   3   3   4   6 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 21 OCT is: 8.7E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
       during the past 24 hours, and the visible disk remained spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Real-time solar wind observations
       from ace show solar wind velocity gradually declined during the past
       24 hours to approximately 455 km/s at forecast issue time.  The
       greater than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
       high levels again today.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet on 22 october.  Quiet to unsettled levels are
       expected on 23 october.  Expect conditions to range from quiet to
       active levels on 24 october, with a chance for minor storm periods,
       as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

            Event probabilities 22 oct-24 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 oct-24 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/25
                        Minor storm           05/05/15
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/30
                        Minor storm           05/05/20
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/10


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 21/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 22 Oct to 24 Oct
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 OCTOBER, 2007
------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **