[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 September

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               19 SEPTEMBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 SEPTEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 262, 09/19/07
10.7 FLUX=067.0  90-AVG=069        SSN=000      BKI=0212 2110  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=0201 1111  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:067,070,070;SESC:067,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,008,015/008,008,015
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=002,002   27DAY-KP=0001 1001 0100 0011
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 SEP 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 19 SEP 07 are: 0+ 2o 0+ 1+   1o 1o 1o 1o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 19 SEP 07 are:   2   7   2   5   4   4   4   4 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 19 SEP is: 9.3E+06
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
       spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to remain
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled on 20 september and mostly
       unsettled on 21 september as a recurrent coronal hole becomes
       geoeffective.  Conditions are expected to remain unsettled to
       active, with a chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes, on
       22 september.

            Event probabilities 20 sep-22 sep

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 sep-22 sep

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/15/35
                        Minor storm           01/10/10
                        Major-severe storm    01/05/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                05/15/35
                        Minor storm           05/10/15
                        Major-severe storm    01/05/10


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 19/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 20 Sep to 22 Sep
Nmbr Lat    Lo
0970 S09    127


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 SEPTEMBER, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **