[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 September

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               20 SEPTEMBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 SEPTEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 263, 09/20/07
10.7 FLUX=067.0  90-AVG=069        SSN=000      BKI=0102 3433  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=0102 3343  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/010,015,015
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=002,008   27DAY-KP=0100 0011 2112 3232
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 SEP 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 20 SEP 07 are: 0+ 1- 0o 2-   3- 3+ 4o 3o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 20 SEP 07 are:   2   3   0   6  12  18  27  15 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 20 SEP is: 8.8E+06
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
       spotless

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to remain
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field was initially quiet, but increased to unsettled
       to active levels beginning at 1300Z.   The increased activity was
       most likely due to a solar sector boundary crossing.  Ace data
       reflected the approaching high speed stream as solar wind speed and
       temperature began to increase in the latter portion of the day.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for active to
       minor-storm periods at high latitudes, as the recurrent coronal
       hole-high speed steam becomes increasingly geoeffective.  These
       conditions are expected to last from 21 september through 23
       september.

            Event probabilities 21 sep-23 sep

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 sep-23 sep

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/35/35
                        Minor storm           10/10/10
                        Major-severe storm    05/10/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/35/35
                        Minor storm           10/15/10
                        Major-severe storm    05/10/10


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 20/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 21 Sep to 23 Sep
Nmbr Lat    Lo
0970 S09    127


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 SEPTEMBER, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **