[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 September

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               21 SEPTEMBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 SEPTEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 264, 09/21/07
10.7 FLUX=067.0  90-AVG=070        SSN=000      BKI=2222 2224  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2212 2224  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:067,067,067;SESC:067,067,067 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,010
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=008,010   27DAY-KP=2112 3232 1111 2243
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 SEP 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 21 SEP 07 are: 2+ 2o 1+ 2-   2- 2o 2+ 4- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 21 SEP 07 are:   9   7   5   6   6   7   9  22 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 21 SEP is: 9.8E+05
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
       spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to remain
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field was unsettled at the beginning of the period
       but quickly subsided to quiet levels.  Real-time solar wind
       observations from ace show a gradual increase in wind speed
       consistent with the onset of a coronal hole-high speed stream. 
       However, bz has been mostly northwards resulting in very little
       geomagnetic response at this time.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to become unsettled to active on 22-23 september, with a
       chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes, as the influence
       of the coronal hole increases.  Activity is expected to subside to
       unsettled levels on 24 september.

            Event probabilities 22 sep-24 sep

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 sep-24 sep

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/15
                        Minor storm           10/10/10
                        Major-severe storm    10/10/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/25
                        Minor storm           15/15/10
                        Major-severe storm    10/10/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 21/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 22 Sep to 24 Sep
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 SEPTEMBER, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **