[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 September

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               27 SEPTEMBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 SEPTEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 270, 09/27/07
10.7 FLUX=067.0  90-AVG=069        SSN=000      BKI=0002 2543  BAI=013
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=0002 1654  PAI=019
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:067,067,067;SESC:067,067,067 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,010/015,025,012
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=007,011   27DAY-KP=1112 2233 2233 2223
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 SEP 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 27 SEP 07 are: 0+ 0o 0o 2-   1+ 6- 5o 4- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 27 SEP 07 are:   2   0   0   6   5  67  48  22 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 27 SEP is: 1.8E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
       the past 24 hours.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was initially quiet. However, a weak shock was
       seen at ace at 1054Z, followed by an increase in magnetic field
       strength and density as well as a small increase in velocity. There
       were some extended intervals of southward bz and as a result there
       was a period of minor to major storm level activity from 1500-1800Z.
       Conditions declined to active to minor storm levels for remainder of
       the period (1800-2100Z). Although the observations are not yet
       conclusive the disturbance appears to be from a transient structure
       in the solar wind, rather than from a recurrent structure. The
       greater than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
       high levels during the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the
       first day (28 september) due to the anticipated onset of a high
       speed stream from a coronal hole. Activity should strengthen on the
       second day (29 september) to predominantly active levels with a
       chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes. Conditions should
       decline to predominantly unsettled levels on the third day (30
       september).

            Event probabilities 28 sep-30 sep

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 sep-30 sep

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/30
                        Minor storm           15/25/15
                        Major-severe storm    05/10/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                45/45/35
                        Minor storm           20/25/20
                        Major-severe storm    10/15/10


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 27/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 28 Sep to 30 Sep
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 SEPTEMBER, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **