[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 September

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                               29 SEPTEMBER, 2007

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 SEPTEMBER, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 272, 09/29/07
10.7 FLUX=068.0  90-AVG=069        SSN=016      BKI=4554 3333  BAI=026
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=5554 3243  PAI=026
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:068,068,068;SESC:068,068,068 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,007,007/015,008,010
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=023,012   27DAY-KP=4534 4243 3323 3223
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 28 SEP 07 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 29 SEP 07 are: 5- 5o 5- 4-   3+ 2- 4- 3+ 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 29 SEP 07 are:  39  48  39  22  18   6  22  18 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 29 SEP is: 7.1E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
       the past 24 hours. Region 971 (N03W06) is a small C-type sunspot
       group and was quiet and stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels from the
       beginning of the period through 29/1200Z, and was mostly unsettled
       thereafter. Real-time solar wind observations at ace show that the
       activity was due to the ongoing influence of a high speed solar wind
       stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 mev electron flux at
       geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled for the first day (30 september)
       with a chance for isolated active periods. Activity should decline
       to quiet to unsettled for the second and third days (01-02 october).

            Event probabilities 30 sep-02 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 sep-02 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/10/10
                        Minor storm           15/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/10/10
                        Minor storm           15/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    10/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 29/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0971 N03W06   112  0050 Cro  04   06 Beta
Regions Due to Return 30 Sep to 02 Oct
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 SEPTEMBER, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **