[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 August

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 15 AUGUST, 2008

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 AUGUST, 2008
----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 228, 08/15/08
10.7 FLUX=065.0  90-AVG=066        SSN=000      BKI=1210 1201  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2200 1111  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:066,066,066;SESC:066,066,066 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,007,010/005,008,010
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=003,003   27DAY-KP=1000 1212 1000 0111
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 AUG 08 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 15 AUG 08 are: 2- 2o 0o 0o   1- 1- 1+ 1+ 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 15 AUG 08 are:   6   7   0   0   3   3   5   5 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 15 AUG is: 5.4E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
       the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low for the next three days (16-18 august).

            The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
       than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet on day one (16 august). An increase to quiet to
       unsettled with isolated active periods is expected on days two and
       three (17-18 august) in response to a recurrent coronal hole high
       speed stream.

            Event probabilities 16 aug-18 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 aug-18 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/15/30
                        Minor storm           01/05/10
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                05/20/50
                        Minor storm           01/10/15
                        Major-severe storm    01/05/10


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 15/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 16 Aug to 18 Aug
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 AUGUST, 2008
-----------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **