[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 August

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 16 AUGUST, 2008

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 AUGUST, 2008
----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
Boulder A and K-Indices (BAI & BKI) were not available and have been replaced
by Fredericksburg data (a similar mid-latitude station).
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 229, 08/16/08
10.7 FLUX=066.0  90-AVG=066        SSN=000      BKI=0111 0123  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1011 1113  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:066,066,066;SESC:066,066,066 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,010,012/008,010,015
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=003,006   27DAY-KP=1000 0111 1122 2122
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 AUG 08 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 AUG 08 are: 1o 0+ 1+ 1o   1- 1o 1+ 3o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 16 AUG 08 are:   4   2   5   4   3   4   5  15 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 16 AUG is: 4.1E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
       the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low for the next three days (17-19 august).

            The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
       than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
       the next three days (17-19 august). The increase is in response to a
       recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

            Event probabilities 17 aug-19 aug

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 aug-19 aug

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/30/35
                        Minor storm           05/10/10
                        Major-severe storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/50/55
                        Minor storm           10/15/20
                        Major-severe storm    05/10/10


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 16/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 17 Aug to 19 Aug
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 AUGUST, 2008
-----------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **