[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 February

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                04 FEBRUARY, 2008

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 FEBRUARY, 2008
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was high today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 035, 02/04/08
10.7 FLUX=071.0  90-AVG=075        SSN=014      BKI=3213 2211  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=3212 1111  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/005,005,005
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=013,006   27DAY-KP=2322 1442 3221 1011
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 03 FEB 08 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 04 FEB 08 are: 3- 2o 1+ 2o   1o 1+ 1o 1o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 04 FEB 08 are:  12   7   5   7   4   5   4   4 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 04 FEB is: 6.5E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
       the past 24 hours. A weak, faint cme was observed in the stereo-a
       and stereo-b coR2 coronagraphs beginning at 0923Z. The signature on
       the ahead coronagraph gave the appearance of a limb event and the
       signature on the behind spacecraft looked like a very faint halo
       event. Associated disk signatures were clearly observed near S15E20
       using the stereo-b euvi 195 images which showed an eruptive type of
       event, likely the result of a filament eruption.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low for the next three days (05-07 february).

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ace
       shows a continuing downward trend as the influence of the high speed
       stream is waning. The solar wind speed at forecast issue time was
       around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 mev electron flux at
       geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (05-07
       february).

            Event probabilities 05 feb-07 feb

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 feb-07 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor storm           01/01/01
                        Major-severe storm    02/02/02

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor storm           05/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 04/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0982 S09W27   247  0010 Bxo  04   04 Beta
Regions Due to Return 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 FEBRUARY, 2008
-------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **