[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 February

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                15 FEBRUARY, 2008

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 FEBRUARY, 2008
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
Boulder A and K-Indices (BAI & BKI) were not available and have been replaced
by Fredericksburg data (a similar mid-latitude station).
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 046, 02/15/08
10.7 FLUX=070.0  90-AVG=075        SSN=000      BKI=2332 2111  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2333 3211  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:072,072,072;SESC:072,072,072 BAI/PAI-FCST=008,005,005/010,005,005
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=009,006   27DAY-KP=1133 3312 1321 2122
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 FEB 08 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 14 FEB 08 are: 2o 1+ 2+ 1+   3+ 1+ 5o 4- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 14 FEB 08 are:   7   5   9   5  18   5  48  22 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 15 FEB is: 2.1E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  The visible solar disk
       remains spotless.  A slow-moving cme, apparently from the backside,
       was observed on the east limb at approximately 15/0530Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled due to a
       geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speed
       remains in excess of 600 km/s.  The greater than 2 mev electron flux
       at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
       active periods for 16 february.  The geomagnetic field is expected
       to abate to quiet for 17 - 18 february as the coronal hole high
       speed stream rotates from its geoeffective position.

            Event probabilities 16 feb-18 feb

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 feb-18 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/15
                        Minor storm           10/05/01
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/35/15
                        Minor storm           15/10/05
                        Major-severe storm    05/05/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 15/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 FEBRUARY, 2008
-------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **