[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 January

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                15 JANUARY, 2008

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 JANUARY, 2008
-----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 015, 01/15/08
10.7 FLUX=074.0  90-AVG=074        SSN=000      BKI=3333 3321  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=3222 3202  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:075,070,070;SESC:075,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,008,005/010,008,005
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=008,012   27DAY-KP=2422 2122 3322 2432
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 JAN 08 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 15 JAN 08 are: 3- 2+ 2o 2o   3- 2+ 0+ 2- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 15 JAN 08 are:  12   9   7   7  12   9   2   6 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 15 JAN is: 1.4E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
       spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to remain
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under the influence of a
       recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speed at ace
       declined from a peak of approximately 760 km/s to 650 km/s during
       the period.  The greater than 2 mev electrons reached high levels.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to remain unsettled on days 1 and 2 (16-17 jan) under the
       waning influence of the coronal hole.  Infrequent, brief periods of
       active to minor storm conditions will still be possible at high
       latitudes.  Day 3 (18 jan) should bring a return to quiet
       conditions.

            Event probabilities 16 jan-18 jan

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 jan-18 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/20
                        Minor storm           15/10/10
                        Major-severe storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/10
                        Minor storm           20/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    05/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 15/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 JANUARY, 2008
------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **