[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 January

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                16 JANUARY, 2008

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 JANUARY, 2008
-----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 016, 01/16/08
10.7 FLUX=073.0  90-AVG=074        SSN=000      BKI=3334 2212  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=3333 2223  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=008,005,005/008,005,005
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=012,011   27DAY-KP=3322 2432 3332 2331
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 JAN 08 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 JAN 08 are: 3- 3- 3- 3o   2+ 2- 2- 3o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 16 JAN 08 are:  12  12  12  15   9   6   6  15 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 16 JAN is: 2.3E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remains
       spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to remain
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled under the continued
       influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind
       at ace peaked at approximately 700 km/s during the period.  The
       greater than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
       high levels.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled on day one of the forecast period (17 jan)
       as the influence of the high speed stream wanes.  Isolated active
       periods, particularly at high latitudes, are still possible. 
       Stereo-b data suggest a downward trend in solar wind speed and
       magnetic activity over the next 40 hours, so by days two and three
       (18-19 jan) conditions should return to quiet levels.

            Event probabilities 17 jan-19 jan

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 jan-19 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/10/10
                        Minor storm           05/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/10
                        Minor storm           10/05/05
                        Major-severe storm    05/01/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 16/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
Regions Due to Return 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 JANUARY, 2008
------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **