[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 July

Tue Jul 22 22:31:45 GMT 2008

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  21 JULY, 2008

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 JULY, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 203, 07/21/08
10.7 FLUX=066.0  90-AVG=067        SSN=000      BKI=1134 2222  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1122 2122  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A1.0   @ 0000UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.0   @ 0000UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:066,066,066;SESC:066,066,066 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,010/010,015,010
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=004,012   27DAY-KP=1100 0123 4331 1233
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 JUL 08 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 21 JUL 08 are: 1+ 1o 2o 2+   2- 1o 2- 2o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 21 JUL 08 are:   5   4   7   9   6   4   6   7 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 21 JUL is: 6.4E+07
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
       the past 24 hours. Region 1000 (S12W18) is spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be at
       very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active
       period from 0900-1200Z. The solar wind data at ace indicated the
       passage of a solar sector boundary. The greater than 2 mev electron
       flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled on day one (22 july), unsettled to
       active on day two (23 july), and mostly unsettled on day three (24
       july). The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected
       effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

            Event probabilities 22 jul-24 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 jul-24 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/30/20
                        Minor storm           05/15/05
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/50/25
                        Minor storm           10/20/10
                        Major-severe storm    01/05/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 21/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
1000 S12W18   179                    Plage
Regions Due to Return 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 JULY, 2008
---------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **