[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 March

[Semi-finalized daily report of solar and geophysical activity.]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                 05 MARCH, 2008

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 MARCH, 2008
---------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 065, 03/05/08
10.7 FLUX=070.9  90-AVG=074        SSN=013      BKI=1233 3321  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=A1.0     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1123 3212  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A3.0   @ 1429UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.2   @ 1434UT   XRAY-AVG= A1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00
GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT   GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT  G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00
 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,012/005,005,015
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=005,004   27DAY-KP=2200 0202 2011 1012
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 04 MAR 08 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 MAR 08 are: 1+ 1+ 2+ 3-   3- 2+ 1+ 2- 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 05 MAR 08 are:   5   5   9  12  12   9   5   6 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 05 MAR is: 3.6E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z:    70.5,    70.9,    70.6 sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity continues at very low levels. The
       filament eruption observed from near S22W20 at around 04/1200Z had
       an associated faint, slow cme observed on coronagraph imagery. The
       cme is not expected to be geoeffective. New region 984 (sO5W69)
       emerged today as a small bxo sunspot group.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to continue
       at very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Periods of southward bz
       produced the weak disturbed conditions. The greater than 2 mev
       electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
       today. The electron flux was elevated above the alert threshold
       since 29 feb, but dropped below the threshold late this period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to range from quiet to minor storm conditions over the next
       three days. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail on
       6 and 7 march. A large, recurring coronal hole high speed stream
       will rotate into a geoeffective position on 8 mar and produce
       periods of active to minor storm conditions at all latitudes.

            Event probabilities 06 mar-08 mar

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 mar-08 mar

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/40
                        Minor storm           01/05/20
                        Major-severe storm    01/01/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/50
                        Minor storm           05/10/25
                        Major-severe storm    01/05/15


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 05/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0984 S05W69   253  0020 Bxo  03   03 Beta
Regions Due to Return 06 Mar to 08 Mar
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 MARCH, 2008
----------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **